The Elements of Innovation Discovered
The Elements of Innovation Discovered
Critical Minerals Alliances - August 7, 2025
Bismuth crystals are known for their rhombohedral lattice structures and iridescent colors caused by surface oxidation.
Magnificent Seven tech company supply chains are heavily reliant on critical minerals supplied by China.
A critical mineral-enriched boulder dug out of a pit excavated to provide aggregate for road work on Fortune Minerals' NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper project in Northwest Territories.
At a time when geopolitical alliances are being forged around mineral security, bismuth has quietly become a strategic wildcard in the West's push for industrial resilience.
In late 2023, China added bismuth to its growing list of export-restricted critical minerals, an action that came with little warning but enormous implications. Though not as headline-grabbing as gallium or graphite, bismuth is a metal with a surprising range of industrial and high-tech uses, many of which are increasingly essential to the U.S. defense sector and clean energy economy.
Known to the layman for soothing stomachs in Pepto-Bismol, bismuth's true industrial prominence lies in its use as a non-toxic replacement for lead in plumbing, free-cutting steel, aluminum alloys, ammunition, and solder.
Its unique physical properties, including high density, low toxicity, and diamagnetism, also make it useful in semiconductors, thermoelectrics, and nuclear shielding.
Despite bismuth's importance to American manufacturing, the U.S. relies on imports for more than 95% of its supply.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, no domestic mine currently produces bismuth as a primary product, and recycling accounts for only a small share of the nation's needs.
"The United States ceased production of primary refined bismuth in 1997 and is highly import-reliant," the USGS penned in its 2025 Mineral Commodity Summaries report.
While bismuth markets are somewhat opaque, the USGS reports that most of the bismuth imported into the U.S. comes from China, which produces roughly 80% of the world's supply.
This exposes the U.S. and its allies to supply shocks in the event of further export controls, price manipulation, or political tensions.
The recent inclusion of bismuth on China's export restrictions list indicates the strategic value of this metal, and the potential of supply disruptions has triggered concerns among manufacturers and policymakers alike, not only for pharmaceutical products but also for national security applications that rely on the metal's unique attributes.
Magnificent Seven tech company supply chains are heavily reliant on critical minerals supplied by China.
China's bismuth restrictions are part of a broader strategy to tighten control over the exports of critical raw materials amid escalating global trade and technology disputes.
Since placing state-controlled limitations on the exports of gallium and germanium in mid-2023, Beijing has intensified its export restrictions in response to U.S. policies it disagrees with.
The restrictions on bismuth – along with indium, molybdenum, tellurium, and tungsten – were in response to U.S. tariffs placed on Chinese imports by the Trump administration early in 2025.
Despite its relatively small market, bismuth plays a significant role in high-tech and defense applications, where even modest supply disruptions can have a ripple effect across critical supply chains.
In June, companies building AI data centers for "Magnificent Seven" tech companies – Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla – warned that their work could be hampered by a shortage of bismuth-based solder, which is essential to connecting temperature-sensitive electronics for data centers and other technologies.
"Magnificent Seven companies – these are functional monopolies, with a combined market cap of over $17 trillion – but they can't build data centers or supercomputers without Chinese bismuth," said Inside China Host Kevin Walmsley, who reported that Chinese customs officials in Guangxi seized unlicensed bismuth being exported when alerted by soldering paste listed on the ship's manifest.
With Beijing tightening export controls and alternative sources slow to emerge, analysts expect upward pressure on prices and growing concern among manufacturers and policymakers.
China's export license requirements and enforcement have sent bismuth prices skyrocketing to a high of $38.50/lb earlier this year, a more than tenfold increase over the $3.58/lb selling price at the start of 2025.
Prices have since settled into the $15/lb range following the 90-day trade war truce struck between the U.S. and China in May, though analysts warn that prices could spike again if longer-term diplomatic or supply chain solutions remain elusive.
Uncertainty of supply has also prompted a reassessment of how "critical" bismuth may become in a future defined by both clean energy transformation and mineral nationalism.
A critical mineral-enriched boulder dug out of a pit excavated to provide aggregate for road work on Fortune Minerals' NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper project in Northwest Territories.
Like many of the other minerals deemed critical to the U.S., Canada, European Union, and other nations, bismuth is typically recovered as a byproduct of mining and refining other metals like tungsten and zinc.
"Bismuth minerals rarely occur in sufficient quantities to be mined as principal products," the USGS wrote in its commodities summaries.
Only two mines that produce bismuth as a primary metal have ever been developed – one in Bolivia, which has been shuttered since 1996, and another in China. However, the largest known bismuth deposit in the world remains undeveloped and is found in North America – offering a potential source of this critical metal as Western nations seek alternatives to China.
This deposit at Fortune Minerals Ltd.'s NICO project in Canada's Northwest Territories hosts roughly 12% of the world's bismuth reserves.
NICO also hosts significant quantities of cobalt, copper, and gold, which provides a naturally hedged supply of metals critical to economic growth, clean energy, and defense.
According to a 2020 development plan, which is currently being updated, a mine at NICO and an associated refinery in Alberta would produce an average of 1,800 metric tons of battery-grade cobalt sulfate, 1,700 metric tons of bismuth, 300 metric tons of copper, and 47,000 oz of gold annually over the first 14 years of mining and refining.
At $3,000/oz, the gold produced in an average year at NICO would be worth over $140 million, lowering the costs to produce bismuth and the other critical metals at the vertically integrated operation. However, at $38.50/lb peak earlier this year, the bismuth produced annually would be valued at around $144 million, making it the primary economic driver of the northern Canada mine.
Whether NICO is thought of as a critical minerals project hedged by gold or a gold project with critical mineral byproducts, Fortune's planned mining and refining project offers a reliable and sustainable supply of bismuth and cobalt that can weather price volatility and market manipulation.
The naturally hedged bismuth and cobalt that NICO could produce have attracted the attention of government officials in both Ottawa and Washington, D.C.
In 2024, Fortune received approximately C$17 million ($12 million) from the U.S. Department of Defense, Natural Resources Canada, and the Alberta Innovates Clean Resource Intake program to complete an updated feasibility study and secure the remaining permits required to accelerate its vertically integrated NICO project to a construction decision.
"It has been difficult attracting investment funding for essential critical minerals projects in traditional capital markets," Fortune Minerals President and CEO Robin Goad said, following the May 2024 funding announcement. "We are therefore grateful for the U.S. Defense Department's timely and strategic financial support to enable Fortune Minerals to accelerate development of the NICO project to provide additional domestic capacity and security of supply."
Fortune's vertically integrated project has also attracted the attention of mining giant Rio Tinto, which is investigating the potential of blending bismuth- and cobalt-enriched byproducts from its world-class Kennecott copper mine in Utah with concentrates produced at NICO. This blend is expected to enhance the quantities of these critical metals recovered at the Alberta refinery.
"We are enthusiastic about this partnership with Fortune Minerals as we continue looking at our waste streams to develop new, sustainable sources of critical minerals here in North America," said Rio Tinto Kennecott Managing Director Nate Foster.
This partnership, coupled with continued support from Ottawa and Washington, could help bring some relief to the heartburn caused by severe Western shortages of bismuth as China continues to flex its critical minerals muscle.
Until then, the Magnificent Seven can only hope that China will continue to provide enough solder paste to hold the tech sector in the West together.
Or, as Walmsley put it, "The richest companies on the planet are stuck, because inspectors here in China are opening boxes and jars to make sure there is no bismuth heading their way."
With more than 17 years of covering mining, Shane is renowned for his insights and in-depth analysis of mining, mineral exploration, and technology metals.
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