The Elements of Innovation Discovered
The Elements of Innovation Discovered
Critical Minerals Alliances - August 7, 2025
Google AI's Sycamore quantum computer processor takes advantage of germanium's superior electronic properties.
Germanium possesses unique optical properties that enhance fiber optics and infrared imaging technologies, the biggest drivers of demand for this critical metalloid.
A 1954 advertisement for General Electric's high-performance germanium-infused transistors.
Teck Resources' Trail refinery in Canada produces zinc, lead, silver, germanium, indium, and other specialty materials.
Jonathan Price
In July 2023, China issued a one-two punch in the form of export controls on two elements critical to the global tech sector gallium and germanium. While gallium captured the headlines, germanium slid largely under the radar. Yet, when it comes to the high-stakes game of national security and economic resilience in today's big data world, germanium is a quiet giant underpinning modern communications, military optics, and the solar-powered satellites orbiting Earth.
As China tightens its grip on germanium as it vies with the United States for semiconductor technology dominance, prices are on the rise, and the world is scrambling to secure new sources of this obscure element essential to the technologies of today and tomorrow.
"Germanium consumers around the world are looking for alternatives while producers aim to lift output as demand increases, while restrictions on exports from China reduce availability," according to a germanium report by global market intelligence provider Argus Media.
Germanium is a relatively rare metalloid – an element with properties that fall between metals like aluminum and nonmetals like carbon. The semi-metallic characteristics of metalloids make them excellent semiconductors for modern technologies.
A 1954 advertisement for General Electric's high-performance germanium-infused transistors.
Recognized by computing pioneers in the 1940s as one of the most powerful semiconductors on the periodic table, germanium is the "OG Digital Age metalloid," as it was dubbed in last year's Critical Minerals Alliances.
Despite being the original and more powerful semiconductor for the transistors that kickstarted the age of modern computing, germanium was supplanted by silicon, a more abundant and less expensive material.
Now, the superlative properties that made germanium a 1950s poster child of pioneers like Sylvania and General Electric are back in demand as tech firms seek to pack more computing power into smaller packages.
"Germanium is viewed as a possible solution to the ever-growing desire for smaller and smaller semiconductors," the Center for Strategic & International Studies analysts wrote in a report on the critical minerals feeding into semiconductor supply chains.
The rise of quantum computing, robotics, and AI is accelerating the demand for germanium superlative semiconductor properties.
"The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in a range of industries is driving strong demand for silicon-germanium owing to the compound's ability to operate at higher frequencies and lower power. That makes it well suited to the higher performance and efficiency that AI requires," Argus penned in its germanium report.
While more powerful computing and AI are creating a renewed need for germanium, the biggest driver of demand for this critical metalloid stems from unique optical properties that are enhancing infrared technologies and fiber optics.
"One of the primary forces behind germanium's skyrocketing demand is its indispensable role in infrared optics," Strategic Metals Invest wrote on its germanium prices webpage.
While night vision and thermal imaging cameras for law enforcement and the military are the most widely recognized applications for infrared optics, autonomous vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems are by far the biggest drivers of demand.
Some advanced lidar systems utilize germanium for short-wave infrared sensing systems that help vehicles safely navigate in low-visibility conditions. This ability to "see" through darkness, fog, and rain is essential for safe autonomous driving.
"What was once a luxury feature in high-end vehicles is now becoming standard, with mid-range cars projected to adopt this technology in the coming years," the tech metals broker wrote. "The expansion of germanium's use in blind-spot detection, autonomous driving, and security automation is expected to create an unprecedented surge in demand."
Combining this new driver of demand with germanium's photonic properties, which are now used in high-speed 5G and 6G telecommunication networks and space-grade multi-junction solar cells, analysts are predicting that the demand for germanium will outstrip supply by more than sixfold by 2030.
This is expected to tighten a market already being squeezed by geopolitics, opaque markets, and limited sources.
Germanium possesses unique optical properties that enhance fiber optics and infrared imaging technologies, the biggest drivers of demand for this critical metalloid.
Amid the surging demand for germanium, China has completely banned exports fo this semiconducting metalloid to the U.S.
The export curbs began in mid-2023 when China put policy into place requiring government authorization for all shipments of germanium and gallium out of the country.
China's Ministry of Commerce said any individual or organization caught shipping any of these materials that originated in China to organizations or individuals in the U.S. "will be held accountable according to law."
Coupled with the surging demand, these export restrictions have sent germanium prices skyrocketing.
When China first put government controls on exports in July 2023, a kilogram of germanium sold for around $2,330. By mid-2025, the price of this critical metalloid had surged to $4,665/kg.
"The current geopolitical environment, coupled with technological advancements, has made germanium one of the hottest metals in the market, with prices gaining 44% last year and 21% in 2023," according to Strategic Metals Invest. "This momentum shows no sign of slowing down, making it a focal point for strategic metals investors."
Even before the restrictions, the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency listed germanium as a strategic and critical material due to its importance to defense systems and limited domestic production.
Teck Resources' Trail refinery in Canada produces zinc, lead, silver, germanium, indium, and other specialty materials.
A rare bright spot in the U.S. supply landscape is Teck Resources' Red Dog Mine in Alaska, where germanium is recovered as a byproduct from zinc ores. However, its potential is constrained by uncertain mine longevity, lack of domestic refining capacity, and strained trade relations with Canada.
For the past three decades, much of the zinc concentrates from Red Dog have been shipped to Teck's Trail Operations refinery in southern British Columbia, where germanium and other metals are recovered as byproducts.
This combination of U.S. mining and Canadian refining makes Teck the largest producer of germanium in North America.
Trail produces six different germanium products tailored for fiber optics, high-speed computer chips, quantum computer transistors, solar cells, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), night vision goggles, and other high-tech applications.
The B.C. refinery also produces zinc and high-purity indium, both of which are on the list of metals critical to the U.S.
Fortunately for Teck and American manufacturers looking for an alternative supply, the critical metals produced at Trail are covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) and are exempt from tariffs.
Jonathan Price
"Refined zinc, lead, and specialty metals such as germanium, indium, and sulfur products are sold into the U.S., but they are exempt from U.S. tariffs as they are compliant with the USMCA," said Teck Resources CEO Johnathan Price.
China's export bans on germanium and indium have shifted market dynamics, incentivizing Teck to ramp up production at Trail.
With the market for minor metals like germanium and indium being limited, refineries like Trail typically produce only enough to meet demand, thereby preventing market oversaturation and driving down prices to a point where the recovery is no longer economic.
For American manufacturers, this means that Trail will be able to help cushion the impact of China's germanium export ban. As an added benefit, they do not need to pay an extra tariff fee on top of the already skyrocketing cost of this metalloid critical to modern communications, military optics, and the solar-powered satellites orbiting Earth.
With more than 17 years of covering mining, Shane is renowned for his insights and in-depth analysis of mining, mineral exploration, and technology metals.
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